The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economics and the Threat of Financial Collapse

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Therefore, emerging economies which are small compared to developed economies should always be prepared that the liquidity contracts as soon as it appeared.

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In order to be prepared, the capital structure is important. Part III discusses the corporate finance of crises with a view to sovereigns. Exchange rate regimes and debt restructurings become relevant from the balance sheet perspective and these should be managed by the authorities - if the debt is sovereign - and at least examined and taken into account if the debt is private.


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The recent financial crises were not a consequence of the malfunctioning of the international system. They had to do with poor liability management at the local level. The problem with the current architecture is not that global financial markets are too volatile or free capital flows to dangerous but that sovereign capital structures are not usually designed with this volatility in mind.

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The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economics and the Threat of Financial Collapse by Michael Pettis

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    Emerging Economics and the Threat of Financial Collapse

    You may send this item to up to five recipients. Refresh and try again. Open Preview See a Problem? Thanks for telling us about the problem. Return to Book Page. Emerging Economics and the Threat of Financial Collapse 4. This book presents a radically different argument for what has caused, and likely will continue to cause, the collapse of emerging market economies. Pettis combines the insights of economic history, economic theory, and finance theory into a comprehensive model for understanding sovereign liability management and the causes of financial crises. He examines recent financial This book presents a radically different argument for what has caused, and likely will continue to cause, the collapse of emerging market economies.

    He draws out the corporate finance implications of this approach to argue that most of the current analyses of the recent financial crises suffered by Latin America, Asia, and Russia have largely missed the point. He then develops a sovereign finance model, analogous to corporate finance, to understand the capital structure needs of emerging market countries. Using this model, he finally puts into perspective the recent crises, a new sovereign liability management theory, the implications of the model for sovereign debt restructurings, and the new financial architecture.

    Bridging the gap between finance specialists and traders, on the one hand, and economists and policy-makers on the other, The Volatility Machine is critical reading for anyone interested in where the international economy is going over the next several years. Hardcover , pages. Emerging Economics and the Threat of Financial Collapse. To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up.

    The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economics and the Threat of Their Financial Collapse

    To ask other readers questions about The Volatility Machine , please sign up. Be the first to ask a question about The Volatility Machine. Lists with This Book. This book is not yet featured on Listopia. Oct 03, Matthew rated it really liked it Shelves: A simple but important thesis, that understanding capital structure is key to understanding volatility. Pettis argues that it is something we take note of at the corporate level, but not at the sovereign level.

    Perhaps a more controversial part of the argument is that 'fundamental' policies don't matter for emerging economies when trying to avoid financial crises -- things like eradicating corruption, implementing sustainable value creating growth policies, investing in health and education, goo A simple but important thesis, that understanding capital structure is key to understanding volatility.

    Perhaps a more controversial part of the argument is that 'fundamental' policies don't matter for emerging economies when trying to avoid financial crises -- things like eradicating corruption, implementing sustainable value creating growth policies, investing in health and education, good infrastructure, etc. His point is that when there is a great reduction in external liquidity, everyone suffers, and it is those which have defensive capital structures that are best insulated, regardless of their 'fundamental' policies.

    The way to reconcile this with traditional growth economists faith in fundamentals, is, I think, the way to reconcile technical and fundamental stock analysis.

    The Volatility Machine

    Similarly, every stock gets whacked in a big macro correction, but good companies will still outperform over time. The other interesting point is that is interpreted as a short term liquidity contraction in the middle of a larger, long-term liquidity expansion. While and presumably are seen as long-term deleveraging cycles. The longer term global liquidity trends make a big difference in how economies perform and how rapidly they can rebound and how strong sustainable growth will be, even aside from good or bad fundamental policies.

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